Monday, July 9, 2012

UK Ad Revenue Forecasts: Press, TV down - Digital Up

  Analyst firm Group M has revised its forecast for the UK ad market in 2012 upward, now calling for it to reach a total of 13.2 billion pounds - in part due to expected windfalls from the Euro 2012 and London Olympics sporting events.  In their new forecast, though, the increase in projected ad revenues is not uniform across media.  The earlier forecast of 3% growth in TV ad revenues has been slashed to project minimal growth (0.1%).  Forecasts for the UK national newspaper ad revenues also dropped, shifting from a projected 3% decline in total ad revenues, to a 6.3% decline - a loss of 81 billion pounds from 2011 levels.  Advertising revenue forecasts for other print sectors also dropped - with regional newspaper revenues falling 11% (revised from 7.8% decline), consumer magazines dropping 8% (revised from 3% drop), and business magazines falling 10% (revised from 8%).
  The new projections showed modest gains for the radio (5% growth, up from 4.7%) and outdoor advertising (6%, up from 5.1%) sectors.  But the big gain was in digital advertising revenues, with an projected increase of 14.2% in digital/Internet ad spending, for a forecast of 5.35 billion pounds in digital ad revenues in 2012.  At that level, online advertising will account for more than 40% of all UK advertising revenues. 
Adam Smith, a director at Group M, said the overall market was sluggish. "UK advertising investment remains at maintenance levels, lagging even nominal GDP growth."  ... UK growth level was "robust" compared with levels expected in other European markets this year. "Germany and France are barely positive in 2012 while Italy and Spain are expected to contract by about 8%,."

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