Goin' Mobile - Speeds and Content

Some quick notes on the expanding mobile broadband/online video front -

The last leg in mobile broadband for most people will be their home, office, or public WiFi loop.  Telecomm research from the Dell'Oro Group note that the wireless LAN market (i.e. WiFi) grew 17% in 2012.  But even more significantly, the new 802.11ac standard, which offers speeds up to 1 Gigabit/second data rates will be increasingly available on hardware devices this year - contributing to a convergence of wired and wireless data speeds.

There's a massive data speed war in Japan, with multiple operators offering 1 Gbps services over fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) networks, and one operator announcing the rollout of the Nuro 2Gbps FTTH residential service.  So-Net's initial pricing for 2Gbps runs around $50 a month, significantly lower than competing 1 Gpbs services. Meanwhile, Japan telco NTT is said to be working on a 10Gbps residential network, to be available in a few years. 1 Gbps networks are popping up sporadically in the U.S. and Western Europe - Google's test markets offer 1 Gbps data plus multichannel video at around $100-150, and independent 1 Gbps network operators are pricing their services at $200-250 per month.  For most potential residential subscribers, there is little noticeable difference between 2 Gbps and 1 Gbps top data speeds, or for that matter 100 Mbps (corrected  from Gbps) speeds, so there is minimal incentive to switch to ultra-broadband services - aside from bragging rights, and price.  So many analysts are cautious about the rush to ultra-fast broadband, wondering if the cost of upgrading network speeds is recoverable from residential subscription fees.

On the content front, research from ABI is predicting substantial growth in use of the movie industry's UltraViolet "content locker" initiative.  Ultraviolet offers those with accounts online access to selected movies they've purchased on home media and registered with the service.  Ultraviolet currently has 6-8 million accounts; ABI estimates that the global market is likely to reach 65 million users (100 million if several major movie distributors join the program).  What's holding up growth at the moment, the report concludes, are consumer attitudes about trust and usability.

Consumers don’t yet trust the concept, with most still opting for subscription and digital content rental services such as Netflix and Hulu. “The ease of accessing and storing digital video libraries must approach that of digital music,” noted ABI practice director Sam Rosen.

Sources -  Wireless LAN Market on Fire,  CableFAX Tech
Broadband operators must beware the dangers of FTTH 'speed race',  telecoms.com
ABI: UltraViolet Could Radiate 65 Million Accounts… or More,  CableFAX Tech

Edited to correct typo in broadband speeds in middle story.

Infographic: Global Internet Map 2012

From TeleGeography, a map showing Internet connections (and capacity) among the countries of the world.

(There's also an interactive version where you can zoom in to look at various areas)

It may be a bit of a surprise initially, but they show International Bandwidth Growth rates slowing (falling to around 40% annual growth rate for the last year).  But that's partially the result of the fact that a lot of the basic international infrastructure has already been established, combined with the utilization of already-installed dark fiber.  (Fiber optic cables are installed in bundles - those that aren't immediately used for traffic are called "dark fiber" and are held in reserve to handle traffic as demand and utilization grow.  Thus growth doesn't necessarily require rebuilding whole networks).

They also show that despite the huge increases in traffic and network expansion, the prices for IP Transit Service (moving data across networks) continues to fall.

Sources - Global Internet Map, TeleGeography
Global Internet Geography, TeleGeography

U.S. Broadband speeds closer to claims

A new report from the FCC on broadband speeds for various services shows that operators are getting pretty close to achieving peak demand data rates that match advertised speeds.The report finds services are now achieving 96% of the advertised speed, compared to only 87% last year

  Before going on, let me note that the small print on the speed claims indicates that they are for off-peak use.  Also, there are differences in how different broadband technologies handle periods of high demand - some are designed to accommodate peak demand by sharing available bandwidth, which will slow the apparent speeds for individual customers.  For example, DSL-based services delivered peak speeds averaging 84% of what was advertised, cable-based services delivered 99%, and fiber-to-the-home over-delivered at 117%.
  The FCC found significant improvement in delivered vs. advertised speeds over the last year, across a variety of metrics and scenarios.  That's good news and reflects the growing improvement and expansion of broadband infrastructure.  The full report is available through the link below.
  Being able to count on reaching advertised speeds, particularly during peak usage, can be critical for online video consumers - particularly those wanting to watch HD-quality content.  While standard definition video streams at 1-2 Mbps, a single 1080p HD video can require 5Mbps or more.  With most people subscribing to high-speed broadband services advertising speeds of 6-10 Mbps, achieving those actual speeds can be the difference between watching a clean stream with little delay, or long delays and possible interruptions or breakdowns in the stream.

Source  -  Gap narrows between advertised, actual Internet service speeds, finds FCC report,  Broadcast Engineering
FCC Report  -  A Report on Consumer Wireline Broadband Performance in the U.S.

UK will miss Broadband target dates

The UK agency overseeing their project to provide broadband access to 90% of homes by 2015 recently reported that the project is behind schedule, and is unlikely to meet that time goal.
  Under the Broadband Delivery UK program, incumbent telco BT will spend some 2.5 billion pounds to expand broadband access in commercially viable areas, while the British Department for Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) was allocated 530 million pounds to subsidize broadband infrastructure in more rural areas.  Despite a target of completing procurement deals by the end of this year, the DCMS has acknowledge that about two-thirds of local authorities covered by the policy have yet to start the procurement process.  Legal challenges to the procurement process have delayed implementation; in addition, the costs involved in having to submit separate bids for each contract (rather than allowing bidders to combine coverage areas under a single bid), have led many potential bidders to drop out and leaving BT as the default contractor in many cases.
  As a result, expansion in rural areas has already fallen seriously behind schedule, with indications that many in those areas will end up having broadband access with speeds less than a tenth that of urban customers.

Source  -  UK to miss 2015 target for high-speed broadband,  telecoms.com