TV Audience Behaviors and Live vs. VOD

A post from Tim Carmody at Wired.com reinforces my argument that technology has enabled audiences to become more than passive consumers.  More specifically, that for a growing portion of the potential audience, behaviors are driven by content rather than channel.
  Carmody's approach is a bit different, and contrasts how audiences view Video on Demand (VOD) and live broadcasts.

With live television, we flip; with video on demand, we binge. This means that shows have to catch and hold our attention in very different ways — not just over the commercial, but from episode to episode, season to season, and from television to videogames

 He bases this on a look at how the most popular live scripted shows seem to be doing poorly on VOD streaming services like Netflix, Hulu, Amazon, and iTunes. He points to a chart by another blogger (Tristan Lewis), which finds that neither Netflix nor Hulu subscription services carry a full range of the most recent episodes.  Amazon and iTunes have many more available on a pay-per-view basis (each has 43 of the top 50 available).  Carmody first seems to suggest that lack of availability on streaming services is a reflection of a lack of audience interest in watching those shows through a streaming service.  He does later mention what's the real reason (as streaming services will gladly host any content they can get) - that the program producers trying to maximize revenues want to preserve broadcast rights fees and PPV revenues by limiting their availability on subscription streaming services.  (This also explains why some shows that aren't doing all that well on broadcast are eager to get their content on streams, in the hope of building an audience base that will extend to live broadcasts).
  Carmody then offers an alternative explanation, drawn from looking at the nature of programs that are successful both on live broadcasts and VOD.  He finds that those programs tend to be constructed with long story arcs that build over a season, their audiences are younger, and they have a strong and devoted fan base.  In other words, programming that builds a connection with its audience, and a demand that remains regardless of channel. In the words of Hulu Senior VP of content Andy Forssell,

We’ll look for content that’s beloved not beliked. The content that really pays off and punches above its weight in our ecosystem is a show that somebody’s going to see and then they want to go e-mail five of their friends or get on Facebook and post about it…

Carmody then points out that a devoted, net-savvy fan base is one that is much more likely to be willing to subscribe to VOD streaming services, as well as promote the show (and those services) to others.  Furthermore, such a dedicated fan base makes it much easier to target for the delivery of personalized ads.  Success for streaming services may well be related to the ability to identify and acquire niche, must-have, content that will keep a dedicated fan base subscribing month after month.  (I feel the need to also acknowledge the value of a long-tail strategy - of providing content that may be of more limited demand, but which is not available elsewhere.)  Carmody finishes with this thought -

In digital video, the only thing that might be better than a big, amorphous crowd tuning in is a highly engaged community that wouldn’t think about changing the channel.

Or, is willing to use whatever channel has the content they seek.

Sources - "Beloved, not Beliked": Why TV's Live and Streaming Audiences Are Diverging,  Wired.com
Legal streams for 2011 TV Hits,  tnl.net

edit track - added missing title;