2012 Predictions - Television

From MediaPost's OnlineSpin blog, Dave Morgans Top Ten list of reasons 2012 will be the Year of Television, and my comments on the list (in italics -

1. TV Beats Boredom - When asked about whether online video viewing would better TV, Mark Cuban reportedly said no, that TV's "only real competition was boredom, and {TV} was winning."
   Yeah, it does.  But so do many other things.  If TV is really going to succeed, it's got to be better than those alternatives, not just better than nothing.
2. Social media is driving more TV viewing - 2011 was marked by the growth of social media, and the birth of the concept of social TV.  Social media can complement TV viewing.
   To the extent that social media complements TV viewing, it can add value to the experience, and perhaps increase demand (or at least slow down its decline).
3. Better TV devices - TV sets continue to get better and cheaper.  3-D may be a flop, but connected TVs are poised to explode.
   Like HDTV, 3-D may yet succeed as available content increases and equipment improves.  On the other hand, connected TV's value is that it can take you to content beyond regular TV - good news for customers and equipment manufacturers, not so good news for the TV content and distribution industry.
4. Better set-top boxes - there's an explosion of things to connect to TVs, and they're getting better and are becoming easier to interconnect.
   Yes, and all also take you away from traditional TV viewing (see above)
5. Apple's much-anticipated iTV - maybe 2012 will finally see this much-hyped device's arrival.  And maybe it will really enhance the TV experience.
   Another set-top box (see above).  The impact on the TV industry will depend on whether it emerges as an enhancement of traditional TV (adding value to the experience), or a substitute for traditional TV.
6. Better programming - TV networks and studios are continuing to produce and distribute ever-better programming.
   Well, the technical quality continues to improve, but there are few shows outside sports and the various "competitions" that seem to have lasting appeal to audiences.  And fewer still with any originality.
7. More sports - 2012 is an Olympics year, and the added sports programming in the lead-up will provide much more programming, and hopefully more interest.
   The Olympics are a big event, and always help.  On the other hand, the money paid for sports rights continues to inflate beyond supportable levels.
8. Presidential elections - a big news event that can drive TV audiences to local news.
   I'm not so sure about the impact on news audiences, since political coverage seems to have devolved into gossip sessions.  On the other hand, election-related advertising buys will certainly help local station and network coffers.
9. More channel diversity - Will the growth in retransmission fees for broadcast networks, and in carriage fees for the big cable networks encourage system operators to drop marginal specialty channels?  This should open up opportunities for new small, niche-focused networks.
   I don't think increased fees will lead to channels being dropped, not as long as multichannel services continue to expand capacity..  Still, niche programming remains where opportunities are for new channels and networks.
10. TV advertising will become more digital - With connected TV and Multichannel Service operators providing the ability to micro-target ads, maybe 2012 will see the development of a system to target ads to viewers.
    This is the dream of advertisers - making sure their ads are seen by those they want the ad to be seen by, and not paying for all those households for whom the ad is irrelevant.  But there are serious technical and privacy issues at play, as well as a lack of any industry-acceptable audience measurement system that would be adaptable to such a targeted ad system.  Not likely for 2012, at least for traditional TV.  It's starting with streaming channels (who have the customer info and metrics in place), and will likely move to the multichannel system operators before it will transition to national networks (and local broadcasting coming last, if at all).

While 2012 may not be the "Year of Television" (frankly I think it will more likely be seen as the year of mobile or the year of tablets), it should at least be a better year for the Television industry in almost all of its aspects.  Olympic and election related advertising traditionally adds significant demand for limited ad space, and the economy should remain stable, if not improve slightly.  People will quite likely increase their use of their TV sets, but not necessarily for traditional television viewing.  Online video viewing, whether by browsing or through streaming services, is also booming, and should be increasingly competitive with traditional TV as a viable alternative to boredom.  Whether the increased use of online video comes out of traditional TV use or other options is tough to forecast. 

In the end, a lot may depend on how one defines "television" - traditional TV viewing in traditional settings (regular TV sets) should see some improvement in 2012, but the real expansion is likely to be in use of TVs through connected devices for streaming, gaming, and online video viewing, and the emerging mobile TV market (viewing via tablets or other mobile devices).  If that's all TV, the maybe 2012 will really be "The Year of Television"

Source - Top 10 Reasons Why 2012 Will Be The Year of Television,  MediaPost OnlineSpin blog