Monday, January 9, 2012

CES 2012 Preview - Hot Gadgets

From InformationWeek, their selection of 16 Hot Gadgets being introduced at this year's Consumer Electronics Show (CES).  From digital recorders to external storage to cameras, audio, and more.

CES 2012 Preview: 16 Hot Gadgets,  InformationWeek

Nielsen's Digital Tops for 2011

Highlights from Nielsen's report on the top online destinations, social media sites, and smartphone devices:

  • Top U.S. Web Brands - Google, Facebook, Yahoo!, MSN/Bing, YouTube (all averaging over a 100 million unique visitors a month)
  • Top Social Networks/Blogs - Facebook, Blogger, Twitter, Wordpress
  • Top Online Video Destinations - YouTube, VEVO, Facebook, Yahoo!
  • Top Smartphone Device Manufacturers (recent purchases) - Apple (29%), HTC (21%), RIM Blackberry (17%), Samsung (11%), Motorola (11%)

Blowing it Big Times

The digital hiccups continued at the NY Times last month, when a day after announcing plans to launch a dozen regional online editions, the promotions department botched a promotions offer.
The offer, for an "exclusive" 50% discount on subscriptions to the paper, was designed to be send to 300 people who had recently canceled their print subscriptions.  Instead, it went to their entire promotional email list - some 8 million individuals.  Rather than honoring the offer, the Times disconnected the phone number in the email and sent an apology, asking recipients to ignore the message.
So much for truth in publishing from the really old grey lady.

Source - New York Times Publishes Correction, Via Email: Retracts "Exclusive" Sent to Millions, MediaDailyNews

TV and China

Interesting juxtaposition of two items about TV and Chnia.  In the first, China announced that it will be launching a state-run TV network in the U. S.  The channel, to be called "TodayChina" will initially be available via digital broadcast in the New York City area.  The channel will reportedly offer news and entertainment programming in both English and Chinese.as a means of propagating Chinese culture internationally.

On the domestic front, the state is also cracking down on local broadcasting, in response to President Hu Jintao's crackdown on the spread of "foreign influence" on China's society.
“International forces are trying to Westernize and divide us by using ideology and culture,” Hu said in an October speech that was reprinted as a signed essay in Qiushi, a magazine backed by the ruling Communist Party, and published on the government’s website on Jan. 1.
 On January 3, 2012, state0run Xinhua News Service posted a news release detailing draconian changes in local broadcasting in China.  The State Administration of Radio, Film, and Television (SARFT) reported that a new rule would force cancellation of two-thirds of local and satellite television stations' prime time entertainment programming.  Each outlet would be limited to broadcasting no more than 2 entertainment shows a week,  Entertainment programming would be limited to no more than 90 minutes in prime time, while stations would have to provide at least 2 hours of news, including at least 2 separate shows of 30 minutes or longer.  The agency's list of restricted programs includes dating shows, talent shows, talk shows, and "emotional shows of 'excessive entertainment' and 'low taste'."

It reminds me of a similar announcement when I visited Shanghai a few years ago, when reacting to supposed infiltration of Western ideas into local television, the head of SARFT announced a ban on "colored" hair and skimpy clothes by Chinese performers on TV.  Then, the emerging middle class fled to the Internet for their content - but China also seems poised to make another attempt to restrict access to outside content through the Net.  Will this close off rising unrest with a heavy-handed state apparatus, or be seen as a short-term overreaction to the idea of independent thought?

Sources -  China to Start U.S. Television Channel as State Media Takes Culture Abroad,  Bloomberg
An Alarming Development in China That Everyone Has Missed, Business Insider

More Bad News for traditional media

A recent piece in The Economist has an interesting take on the competition between physical media products and the digital world.  In "Not Worth Nicking," they look at criminal activity in the UK - with a focus on what is being stolen.
“Years ago, you’d see a man in a pub selling CDs,” says Eric Phelps, a detective in London’s Metropolitan Police. “Not any more.” Indeed, thefts of entertainment products like CDs and DVDs have collapsed in England and Wales, to the point that they are now taken in just 7% of all burglaries in which something is stolen
 The article contributes the decline to the drop in the price and value of recorded content from legal outlets, and that the "dishonest" can get pirated digital versions for free.

On the other hand, computers and digital devices are not only valuable, but increasingly portable, 

On a side note, the recording industry in the U.S. reported that digital music sales in the U.S. topped sales of physical media products for the first time.  Digital music sales accounted for 50.3% of purchases in 2011, while sales of physical copies dropped 5%.

The most recent Nielsen Company & Billboard’s 2011 Music Industry Report also found that:
  • In 2011, more than 76,000 albums were released that sold at least 1 copy
  • There were 1.27 billion digital tracks sold in 2011, a new record (up 8.4% from 2010)
  • Digital album sales reached a new all-time high of 103.1 million sales, upf nearly 20% from 2010
  • Top genres in 2011 were: Rap and Electronic (up 42%), Country and R&B (up 27%) and Latin (up 23%)
  • For the first time ever, a digital song had more than five million downloads in a calendar year; Adele’s “Rolling In The Deep” (5.8 million) and LMFAO’s “Party Rock Anthem” (5.5 million) both topped the mark
  • For the first time, more than 100 Digital Songs (112) exceeded the 1 million sales mark for the year
  • In 2011 there were 38 different digital songs with sales that exceeded two million (there were 37 in 2010, 31 in 2009, 19 in 2008 and nine in 2007)
  • In 2011, eight different artists broke the 10 million digital track sales mark
  • In 2011, 31% of albums were purchased from online sources,  31% from mass merchant outlets (like WalMart), 20% were bought at retail stores, and only 7% came from independent music stores
It sure does look like digital is winning.

Sources -  Not Worth Nicking, The Economist
See Ya, CDs: Digital Music Sales Overtakes Physical Media, PCWorld
The Nielsen Company & Billboard’s 2011 Music Industry Report, BusinessWire

Thursday, January 5, 2012

2012 Predictions - Television

From MediaPost's OnlineSpin blog, Dave Morgans Top Ten list of reasons 2012 will be the Year of Television, and my comments on the list (in italics -
  1. TV Beats Boredom - When asked about whether online video viewing would better TV, Mark Cuban reportedly said no, that TV's "only real competition was boredom, and {TV} was winning."
    Yeah, it does.  But so do many other things.  If TV is really going to succeed, it's got to be better than those alternatives, not just better than nothing.
  2. Social media is driving more TV viewing - 2011 was marked by the growth of social media, and the birth of the concept of social TV.  Social media can complement TV viewing.
    To the extent that social media complements TV viewing, it can add value to the experience, and perhaps increase demand (or at least slow down its decline).
  3. Better TV devices - TV sets continue to get better and cheaper.  3-D may be a flop, but connected TVs are poised to explode.
    Like HDTV, 3-D may yet succeed as available content increases and equipment improves.  On the other hand, connected TV's value is that it can take you to content beyond regular TV - good news for customers and equipment manufacturers, not so good news for the TV content and distribution industry.
  4. Better set-top boxes - there's an explosion of things to connect to TVs, and they're getting better and are becoming easier to interconnect.
    Yes, and all also take you away from traditional TV viewing (see above)
  5. Apple's much-anticipated iTV - maybe 2012 will finally see this much-hyped device's arrival.  And maybe it will really enhance the TV experience.
    Another set-top box (see above).  The impact on the TV industry will depend on whether it emerges as an enhancement of traditional TV (adding value to the experience), or a substitute for traditional TV.
  6. Better programming - TV networks and studios are continuing to produce and distribute ever-better programming.
    Well, the technical quality continues to improve, but there are few shows outside sports and the various "competitions" that seem to have lasting appeal to audiences.  And fewer still with any originality.
  7. More sports - 2012 is an Olympics year, and the added sports programming in the lead-up will provide much more programming, and hopefully more interest.
    The Olympics are a big event, and always help.  On the other hand, the money paid for sports rights continues to inflate beyond supportable levels.
  8. Presidential elections - a big news event that can drive TV audiences to local news.
    I'm not so sure about the impact on news audiences, since political coverage seems to have devolved into gossip sessions.  On the other hand, election-related advertising buys will certainly help local station and network coffers.
  9. More channel diversity - Will the growth in retransmission fees for broadcast networks, and in carriage fees for the big cable networks encourage system operators to drop marginal specialty channels?  This should open up opportunities for new small, niche-focused networks.
    I don't think increased fees will lead to channels being dropped, not as long as multichannel services continue to expand capacity..  Still, niche programming remains where opportunities are for new channels and networks.
  10. TV advertising will become more digital - With connected TV and Multichannel Service operators providing the ability to micro-target ads, maybe 2012 will see the development of a system to target ads to viewers.
    This is the dream of advertisers - making sure their ads are seen by those they want the ad to be seen by, and not paying for all those households for whom the ad is irrelevant.  But there are serious technical and privacy issues at play, as well as a lack of any industry-acceptable audience measurement system that would be adaptable to such a targeted ad system.  Not likely for 2012, at least for traditional TV.  It's starting with streaming channels (who have the customer info and metrics in place), and will likely move to the multichannel system operators before it will transition to national networks (and local broadcasting coming last, if at all).
While 2012 may not be the "Year of Television" (frankly I think it will more likely be seen as the year of mobile or the year of tablets), it should at least be a better year for the Television industry in almost all of its aspects.  Olympic and election related advertising traditionally adds significant demand for limited ad space, and the economy should remain stable, if not improve slightly.  People will quite likely increase their use of their TV sets, but not necessarily for traditional television viewing.  Online video viewing, whether by browsing or through streaming services, is also booming, and should be increasingly competitive with traditional TV as a viable alternative to boredom.  Whether the increased use of online video comes out of traditional TV use or other options is tough to forecast. 

In the end, a lot may depend on how one defines "television" - traditional TV viewing in traditional settings (regular TV sets) should see some improvement in 2012, but the real expansion is likely to be in use of TVs through connected devices for streaming, gaming, and online video viewing, and the emerging mobile TV market (viewing via tablets or other mobile devices).  If that's all TV, the maybe 2012 will really be "The Year of Television"

Source - Top 10 Reasons Why 2012 Will Be The Year of Television,  MediaPost OnlineSpin blog

Big Data and Journalism

With the rise of cheap computing and data storage has come the ability to measure and store huge amounts of data.  What's coming along a bit more slowly is the interest in, and ability to make use of all of that data.  Another jump in the ability to make use of all that info came with distributed computing - first with standalone projects like SETI@home, which used the processing power of millions of home computers to process billions of pieces of data (2 billion so far), and now the ability to harness the thousands of virtual computers in the Cloud.

So what is  Big Data and what does it have to do with the future of journalism?  The "Big Data" concept refers to the tools and processes for managing and using large datasets.  The idea of data-driven journalism, has been around for decades, but for the most part been limited to focused use of datasets to answer specific questions.  And, quite frankly, it's been severely limited by most journalist's seemingly inherent antipathy to numbers and math, as well as the decline in investigative journalism.

More recently, the concept of database journalism has emerged.  Unlike data-driven journalism, the idea of database journalism is to aggregate the materials collected by journalists into databases, which can then be used to spot trends or provide local illustrations for local versions of stories.

Neither of these fit the idea of Big Data, however.  What the Las Vegas Sun is doing with data may qualify, though - they exploit the massive amounts of audience metric generated by their online edition to suggest coverage, link to public databases to generate real-time informational maps of things like police reports, real estate listings, and retail hours  for local editions, and used public and online databases to research a story on local healthcare.

But there is the potential for much more - particularly in today's age of big data and huge document dumps (often designed to hide the big stories from easy access).  Only traditional journalism hasn't had a lot of interest in, or ability to exploit, Big Data.  From various Wikileaks dumps to the release of Stimulus-funded projects data, to Sarah Palin's emails, journalists have let others do the analysis and largely just reported what they were told (if they reported it at all).  That's a shame, because there is an unprecedented amount of publicly available information on government activities at all levels, campaign contributions and links between big money and "independent" public interest groups that should make a "watchdog" press drool.  Not to mention how monitoring search engines and social media could alert journalists to emerging issues and hot topics.  (For example, Google does a faster and better job of tracking flu outbreaks than the CDC, simply by monitoring searches for "flu remedies" and "flue symptoms.").

If journalism is to have a future, they need to do more than simply report what others say and do - they need to originate news, add value to stories, and reveal the needle in the haystack.  And doing that through Big Data, through the use and analysis of available information, is becoming easier and cheaper.  Will journalists acquire the interest and skills to do so, or will they leave that to others? (and in doing so render themselves even more irrelevant).

Source -  Big Data: Why All the Fuss?  InformationWeek Global CIO

Wednesday, January 4, 2012

New way to Connect your TV

Roku has announced that it's developed and will soon offer a new way to connect your older HDTVs to the Internet.  The device, about the size of a flash drive, is said to be able to plug into any MHL-enabled HDMI access port and connect to the Web through WiFi, and is expected to cost between $50 and $100. 

Roku offers access to a wide, and growing,  range of streaming video services (400 channels at this time).  Needing only an available HDMI port (no cables or power supplies),and accessed through the TV's remote, the device should quickly open up the connected TV marketplace when it comes to the market later this year.


 Sources - Roku Breaks the Smart TV Mold,  FierceTelecom

More Outrageous Online Video Use / YouTube metrics

The latest comScore Video Metrix report on global online video viewing continues to show the rapid growth in online video use.  They report that during October, 2011, about 1.5 billion people aged 15 and older watched more than 200 billion videos online.  YouTube continued to dominate the market, delivering 88+ billion videos (43.8% of the market), with the second largest source for online videos, Youku Inc. (China's version), delivering less than 5 billion.
 The highest numbers for online video viewing were in Canada and the US, followed by the UK, Turkey, and Germany.  Viewers in Canada watched an average of 303 videos a month, with US viewers coming a close second with a 286 average.  UK viewers averaged 268 videos a month, and viewers in both Turkey and Germany averaged around 250 online videos watched in October.  Online video viewing also continued to be ubiquitous, with a reported high reach of 93.6% (of all Web users) in Turkey, and the U.S. coming in at the 8 spot with 88% of all Web users watching at least one online video a month.

More evidence of the burgeoning impact of IPTV and mobile media.

Source: 200 Billion Videos Viewed Online in October; YouTube Delivers 2 out of 5 Worldwide,  Research Brief, MediaPost Blogs

Goin' Mobile - Tablets Update

Some quick notes from the news/rumor world.

Amazon recently announced that the 2011 holiday season was the best ever for the Kindle family,  This December, Amazon sold over a million Kindles a week, making the Kindle Fire its best-selling product on Amazon's mobile website, followed by the Kindle Touch and the basic Kindle model.  The Kindle Fire was the top-selling, most-gifted, and most wished-for product available on Amazon.  Gifting of Kindle books was up 175 percent over the same period in 2010, and the number 1 and number 4 best selling Kindle books released in 2011 were both published independently using Kindle Direct Publishing.

In the business world, a report from Tne NPD Group's 3Q SMB Technology Monitor suggests that almost three-quarters of small and midsize businesses plan to purchase tablets, with the Apple iPad cited as the most considered. One question is whether they'll wait for the iPad 3.
 If so, they may well have a choice of models.  Rumors from supply-chain sources suggest Apple may unveil two iPad 3 models at the MacWorld/iWorld Expo later this month, while a lower-cost iPad 2 will be positioned to compete head-to-head with the Kindle Fire.  Speculation suggests the new iPads will have have higher-resolution screens and employ dual LED-light bars to provide greater brightness.

In the meantime, the iPad's larger competitors, the Motorola Zoom and HP TouchPad had weaker than expected sales in the last quarter of 2011.  Also, RIM has slashed prices for its recently introduced tablet, offering all three models for $299 through January, and announced a new OS release for February that will feature integrated email and other Blackberry features that users expected from RIM devices.

Meanwhile, the battle between the two leading tablet operating systems, Apple's iOS and Google's Android continued, even as both await the introduction of Microsoft's Windows 8 OS.   Analytics firm Flurry estimated that there were some 6.8 million iOS and Android device activations on Christmas day.  Flurry also reported that Apple's App store was on pace to exceed 10 billion downloads, a number the Android Market was also expected to reach by the start of this year.  Apple and Google are also battling in court, were Apple has accused Google of patent infringement in its Android OS.

It should all make 2012 an interesting year for the mobile and tablet markets, at least until SOPA enforcement crashes the Internet.  Let's hope sanity trumps content industry campaign contributions in Congress and they don't pass the proposed legislation.

Sources - Kindle Sales Top 4 Million in December: Amazon,  eWeek.com
Apple iPad Tablet of Choice for Small Businesses: NPD,  eWeek.com
RIM Cuts PlayBook Price as Tablet Battle 2012 Begins, CIO Insight
Apple's iOS, Android Battle Over Holidays: Flurry, eWeek.com