TV on the verge of transformation

Is the television industry on the threshold of a major transformation?  A number of recent industry research and reports are suggesting that major changes in how people access and view television is coming, and that will severely impact advertising revenues for local TV stations, broadcast networks, and multichannel video distributors (cable, DBS, etc.)

The changes have been going on for a decade or more, as video shifted to digital, as Internet connection speeds increased, and as new viewing platforms (PCs, smartphones, mobile tablets) emerged, and huge new collections of video content have been made available to viewers (YouTube, Netflix, etc.)  These have opened new options for viewing, and have shifted control over viewing from the media outlet to the audience.  Online video (from online rather than traditional TV sources) is booming, audiences are increasingly using options for time-shifting. The last few years have also seen audiences becoming increasingly multi-platform - watching TV on a wider range of devices.  Use of mobile devices for watching video has risen rapidly in the last few years, particularly among younger audiences and ethnic audiences.

A recent Morgan Stanley analysis noted that shifting viewing patterns have contributed to a 50% drop in broadcast network average "live" ratings over the last decade - the measure of audience that watched the initial live broadcast. While some of that decline has resulted from cable networks capturing various niche segments, more recent declines have resulted from the rise of time-shifting options. This has led the TV industry to push for a shift to other ratings measures that include delayed viewing - Live+3 (any viewing within three days of initial broadcast) and Live+7 (any viewing within a week).
Underlying this has been a major shift in what ratings represent - from audience at a certain time, to audience for a specific program/episode.  And created a problem for advertisers, as the delayed viewing options do not necessarily include the advertisements aired during the initial live broadcast.
The figure above shows that the decline hasn't been fully reflected in TV advertising rates and revenues.

The broadcast networks have been able to remain the access points for the very large, mass, audiences, and have used that status that to push advertising rates higher (on a CPM, or per-viewer, basis).  But the advertising industry is starting to push back, as some cable networks are reaching broadcast network viewing levels (for certain programs, at least) and mass advertisers are less willing to buy ads at inflated CPMs for programs with large proportions of delayed viewing.  Analysts suggest that the broadcast networks will be unable to maintain all of the current premium CPM pricing in the long term.

The shift in audience viewing patterns is holding true for cable networks as well.  While the decline in live viewing for cable networks has not been as precipitous as that of networks, they are subject to the same change in audience viewing behaviors.  The impact on cable networks, however, is mitigated by the fact that many get the majority of their revenues from licensing/subscription fees.  Those rates and prices are based on audience demand for access, rather than the number of viewers.  Thus, while cable networks may take a hit on advertising revenues, the overall impact on revenues is lessened.
The relative stability of licensing/subscription revenues is encouraging broadcast networks and stations to explore, and try to exploit, that additional source of potential revenue.  Licensing and subscription revenue levels have been increasing rapidly over the last decade or so, and are rapidly nearing the cross-over point - where the TV industry will earn more revenues from licensing than it will from advertising.
 The last year has seen a number of retransmission consent battles between the broadcast networks and major MSOs - with the networks arguing that their licensing fees should reflect their audience levels.  However, as noted earlier, licensing/subscription prices and revenues are based on audience demand for content, not on advertiser demand for audiences.  And general-interest mass channels have relatively low overall values for their content, more competition, and more close substitutes, than the targeted niche cable networks.  Licensing network access is not likely to generate the audience demand required to replace advertising losses - although the networks might find better success licensing specific programs rather than the network overall.  (Particularly if the broadcast networks continue to distribute their content through free, over-the-air TV stations.  Audiences are not likely to pay for network content when it's available over-the-air for free).

Increased licensing and subscription fees is already driving some viewers out of the traditional pay TV market.  These "cord-cutters" are finding that online video sources and free over-the-air TV can provide the video content they desire at much lower cost that multichannel bundles.  While the phenomenon is fairly new, studies suggest some 8% of the TV consumers have dropped all traditional pay sources (cable, DBS, etc.), another 15-20% have cut back on pay TV, going for smaller bundles of channels, and/or dropping Pay-TV services (like HBO) in favor of streaming video services (like Netflix).
The newest challenge for traditional multichannel systems is Dish's new SlingTV streaming video service, which bundles live streaming of 15 of the high-value cable networks and Video-On-Demand for just $20 month.  (See earlier post on the subject).  The SlingTV basic bundle is likely to prove to be a close substitute for basic multichannel bundles that cost 3-5 times as much, feeding the flurry of cord-cutting.
One analyst argued that the shift in audience TV viewing behaviors reflects a structural transition from ad-supported networks to streaming video services. It's certainly in progress, particularly among younger viewers. How long the transition will take, or how complete it will be, is still unknown.  But the change is structural. The bad news for traditional TV services is that with a structural change, it is unlikely that viewers will return to old habits.


Sources -   Broadcasters fear falling revenues as viewers switch to on-demand TV, ft.com (Financial Times)
BRUTAL: 50% Decline In TV Viewership Shows Why Your Cable Bill Is So High, Business Insider
CHARTS: Why Audience Ratings Have Collapsed For Cable TV Shows, Business Insider
The Evolution of TV: 7 dynamics transforming TV, ThinkWithGoogle white paper.
Evolution of TV: Reaching Audiences Across Screens, ThinkWithGoogle white paper.

Signs of the Print Holocaust

Over the last year, the newspaper industry has seen a lot of departures - with major newspaper companies getting rid of a lot of their major properties.  The Washington Post Company sold the Washington Post to media newcomer Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon.com.  The New York Times Company sold the Boston Globe to John W. Henry, owner of the Boston Red Sox.  And Time Warner basically gave away what had been its' premier product, Time magazine (whose new owner also found itself burdened by an additional $1.3 billion in debt).  The Tribune Company has been trying to sell major papers, like the Los Angeles Times and Chicago Tribune for years (and finding limited interest).  Even Murdoch's News Corp took action last year, splitting its print operations from its broadcast, digital, and entertainment operations.

The notion of spinning off print newspapers from broadcast and digital seems to have caught the interest of other media conglomerates -, particularly those with poorly performing print operations.  Over the last few weeks more splits were announced.  The Tribune Company split off most of its newspapers into a separate company (along with $350 million in debt).  E.W. Scripps Co. announced a merger with Journal Communications, and then quickly followed that by spinning off the combined print newspaper assets into a separate company.  And most recently, Gannett announced it would spin off its broadcast and digital operations from its struggling print newspapers next year.

While these announcements tout the prospects for the new print companies, most analysts see the moves as cynical efforts to dump assets with declining value and limited futures.  The lack of serious potential purchasers for major urban dailies in recent years hasn't helped - leaving conglomerates with few alternatives for dealing with newspaper properties in decline.  Spinning print off may be their best financial option at this point - particularly if they see no profitable future for their print dailies.
  

And if companies whose beginnings were in urban print dailies, whose traditional self-image was as newspaper moguls, are at the point where they see no future in that segment anymore, it's hard to be optimistic about the industry.

“I’m very skeptical that in the long term you are going to have a hard copy daily newspaper in each market,” Mr. Huber, an analyst with Huber Research Partners, said.

Sources -   Print is Down, and Now Out,  New York Times
Gannett, Owner of USA Today, to Split Its Print and Broadcast Businesses, New York Times
Now Scripps Is Splitting, Too,  The Wall Street Journal

Pew's Web@25 Studies

The Pew Research Center has released a series of reports on the history, status, and future of the Internet, in conjunction with the 25th Anniversary of the World Wide Web.

The Web at 25 in the U.S. looked at a range of surveys looking at how the Internet is used by people, and their views of the Internet and the content and services it offers.  Over the 25 years of the Web, internet usage among U.S. adults has grown from 14% to 87%.  90% of those surveyed earlier this year indicated that the Internet has been beneficial for them, while 76% indicated that they thought the Internet had been good for society.  In fact, the Internet is the technology that people are least willing to give up.  In fact, a range of digital and mobile technologies have become an integral, and crucial, part of people's lives.

And while press coverage and political discussions often focus on the more negative aspects of the Web, most users (76%) report that they've been treated well (kind or generous) in their online interactions, two-thirds (67%) felt that online communication has strengthened their relationships with friends and family, more than half (56%) indicate they've witnessed online groups coming together to help people or to solve a community problem.  In contrast, only 25% report ever been treated badly or have ever abandoned a site or service because it's gotten ugly (users attacked or discussions becoming virulent).

Digital Life in 2025 summarizes the predictions of a group of key experts.  Most agreed on the key technological trends - that the Internet will become even more ubiquitous, integrated, and immersive; that the Web will increasingly integrate tags, sensors, apps, and intelligent agents to facilitate people's ability to use online content and services.  They also widely agreed that the digital network economy will disrupt 20th century business models.  This can be beneficial, creating the potential for fostering awareness and understanding, building relationships, and promoting collaboration and social group action.  On the other hand, the same potential can provide opportunities for abuse.  But the biggest threat is the possibility that nations (or other organizations) could co-opt the network, restricting and limiting the Web's potential through imposed regulations and structured access - turning the Internet into an instrument of political and social control rather than an open marketplace.

The choices we make today - our willingness to trade freedom for security, diversity for the safety of conformity, and privacy for convenience - will go a long way to determining what kind of internet we'll have in the future, and whether it remains a social good, or a mechanism for control.

Sources -  What the Internet of 2025 Might Look Like,  WSJ.com
The Web at 25 in the U.S.,  PewResearch Internet Project report
Digital Life in 2025,  Pew Research Internet Project report

Internet Week's take on the Future of Media

The recent Internet Week conference hosted (and recorded) four sessions where various industry folks talked about the future of media.  From one of the keynotes to panels on "Tomorrow's Media Landscape", "Convincing People to Pay for Content", and "Is Twitter Live TV's Newest Follower?".

AdAge embeds the four videos in its story, and the Internet Week folks have those and other recorded sessions available at the Internet Week NY site on Livestream.

Source -  The Future of Media, as seen at Internet Week,  Advertising Age

Netflix Optimistic about Internet TV

In a recent letter to shareholders, Netflix CEO Reed Hastings was optimistic about the future for online video.  His "Top 10" list of reasons Internet TV will continue to boom -

Ten Reasons Internet TV Will Grow from Reed Hastings
1. The Internet will get faster, more reliable and more available
2. Smart TV sales will increase and eventually every TV will have Wifi and apps
3. Smart TV adapters (Roku, AppleTV, etc.) will get less expensive and better
4. Tablet and smartphone viewing will increase
5. Tablets and smartphones will be used as touch interfaces for Internet TV
6. Internet TV apps will rapidly improve through competition and frequent updates
7. Streaming 4k video will happen long before linear TV supports 4k video
8. Internet video advertising will be personalized and relevant
9. TV Everywhere will provide a smooth economic transition for existing networks
10. New entrants like Netflix are innovating rapidly.

Source -  10 Reasons Internet TV Will Grow,  AppNewser

Newspaper Reporter - 2013's Worst Job?

The annual Jobs Ratedreport from Career Cast is out.
The best job - actuary.  The top twenty are notable as all requiring math, engineering, biomedical/health, or advanced degrees.

The worst job - Newspaper Reporter.  And it's the only one in the bottom 10 that expects a college and/or graduate degree.  It's a career with a negative job growth rate (-6%), and where half of full-time reporters earn $36,000/yr or less.

Ever-shrinking newsrooms, dwindling budgets and competition from Internet businesses have created very difficult conditions for newspaper reporters.
Consumers can access online news outlets almost anywhere thanks to technological advancements, which are threatening the existence of traditional print newspapers. As a result, the number of reporter jobs is projected to fall 6% by 2020, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), while average pay is expected to continue its decline.

And its not only the decline in available jobs and the low pay.  Much of the industry's job losses have been in the bigger papers - severely limiting opportunities for career advancement.  In addition, it's also a high-stress career, with tight deadlines and the need to work in all conditions.

"I covered crime, so when breaking news happened, I had to be there. And when editors called at night with questions, I had to take the calls," says Rochelle Gilken (who traded her job as reporter for a position in media relations for a local utility).

Lest you think that Career Cast's rating is a fluke, Kiplinger listed three news-related jobs among its "Ten Worst Jobs for the Future": Printing Press Operator (10-year job growth -16%); Desktop Publisher (Job growth -15%); Journalism Reporter (Job Growth -7%).  For reporters, they recommend possible alternative careers in public relations (more demand, higher salaries, better hours) or broadcast news analyst (better pay and projected 10-year job growth is +10%).
  The Jobs Rated report does have other media related jobs among the 200 they related.

• Web Developer comes in at #24.
• Technical Writer, #60
• Film/Video Editor, #138
• Author (fiction or non-fiction). #156
• Publication Editor, #168
• Photographer, #172
• Broadcaster, #184
• Photojournalist, #188

Slate's Will Oremus puts an interesting spin on the situation:

The only thing I can say in defense of my beleaguered profession is that, for a certain sort of person—a cynical yet stubbornly idealistic person who holds facts dear and simply can’t abide bullshit—all the trade-offs can be worth it, at least until the bills pile up so high that it’s no longer tenable.

Sources -  Newspaper Reporter Beats Out Lumberjack, Soldier as "Worst Job of 2013",  Slate
Jobs Rated 2013: Raaking 200 Jobs From Best to Worst, Career Cast
10 of the Worst Jobs for the Future, Kiplinger

Thoughts on SXSW

Not mine, regrettably - I've never managed to make that shindig.  Anne Czernek from Online Media Daily, though, offers her thoughts on the top trends for 2013, as seen at SXSW-Interactive.

1. Democratization of hardware.  Not only is the tech for producing quality media content affordably available and nearly omnipresent, but 3D printing is showing the same potential for physical goods.
2. No breakout app - the focus this year was more on what the new hardware made possible, rather than new ideas for using old(er) tech.
3. Social media's impact on technology.  Technology made social media possible, then feasible, and finally practical.  This year, it was social media through crowd-funding that returned the investment.
4. Inspiration from outside - This year's big inspiration was Elon Musk, who talked of space and reusable rockets, not digital payments.
5. Convergence as a good thing - Increasingly, talent and content is being shared across old industry boundaries.  Ideas flowing from journalism to health care to aeronautics are demonstrating that synergies can develop in unexpected ways.
6. It's a global world - SXSW, which started as a showcase for Austin bands, is attracting vendors, entrepreneurs, participants and visitors from around the world.
7. More focus on content - and going viral -  Both publishers and marketers seem more comfortable with digital and social strategies, and realize that you need content to draw audiences in and get them active.
8. Some trends refuse to die - A few keep breaking out, generating buzz and potential, yet somehow haven't crossed that critical mass point.  In recent years, NFC, RFID, QR (codes), and AR (augmented reality) have gotten attention, and found success in niche applications, yet haven't found that mass appeal value.

For me, the biggest transformative potential is 3-D printing, although costs still need to drop before it's likely to hit critical mass.  That is, if the current industry bigs don't try to outlaw it first.

Source -  SXSW Interactive: 8 Top Trends of 2013,  Online Media Daily

Just how bleak is TV's future?

I ran across an interesting analysis of the TV industry on the Business Insider blog, where Henry Blodget argues that the TV industry faces collapse.

  His argument is based on growing evidence that TV viewing behaviors are changing, even while revenues and profits remain high.  The same position that the newspaper was in during the 1990s.  And just like newspapers in the 1990s, TV's leaders today proclaim their importance and relevance, even as they seek to expand what counts as "viewing" (see the following post).

For understandable reasons, many TV executives continue to dismiss the digital threat out of hand, pointing out that people still spend 5 hours a day in front of their boob tubes and arguing that the TV habit is so entrenched that satellite-cable-telco-network juggernauts will be able to maintain their chokehold and profits forever.

 And like newspapers, today's TV leaders forget that its audiences and advertisers that determine TV's value, and its revenues.  Falling ratings and changing viewing patterns suggest that the relative value of traditional broadcast TV is in decline.
  In a prior post, Blodget illustrated some of the changes by looking at viewing behavior in his own home -

• We almost never watch television shows when they are broadcast anymore  (with the very notable exception of live sports)
• We rarely watch shows with ads, even on a DVR
• We watch a lot of TV and movie content, but always on demand and almost never with ads (We're now so used to watching shows via Netflix or iTunes or HBO that ads now seem like bizarre intrusions)
• We get our news from the Internet, article by article, clip by clip. The only time we watch TV news live is when there's a crisis or huge event happening somewhere. (You still can't beat TV for that, but soon, news networks will also be streamed).
• We watch TV and movie content on 4 different screens, depending on which is convenient (TV, laptops, phones, iPad)

In other words, in our household, and in many other households like ours, the same thing has happened to the TV business that has happened to the newspaper business: the user behavior that supported the traditional all-in-one TV "packages"--networks and cable/satellite distributors--has changed.

Blodget suggests that these changes will eventually have some big impacts - networks becoming largely irrelevant as it will be programs that drive viewing; viewers will realize that the vast bulk of what they pay for TV (from cable and other multichannel providers) is wasted; and advertisers will realize that the vast bulk of what they pay for TV advertising is wasted. And when audiences and advertisers see that, a lot of TV's revenues and profits will be gone.

  Before you start arguing that that's just anecdotal, there's a lot of good research that's starting to show the same thing. I've already discussed some of that (check the posts on media use). Blodget's "Tolls" post also makes use of several recent studies of TV viewing behaviors over time to support his argument that TV viewing behaviors are starting to change.
   Pay TV subscriptions are falling. And they're a huge profit sector for cable, DBS, and telco-TV operators.


Ownership of alternative display and video delivery devices is booming, and starting to impact media use habits. Particularly for younger viewers.

TV audiences continue to be heavy multitaskers (three quarters are doing something else at the same time they're watching early prime-time TV), but they report increasing use of other media while "watching" TV.


Alternate media use is also growing for those who aren't watching TV during early prime-time


   What this all suggests is that TV-viewing behaviors are starting to change, and not in ways that help traditional TV. How quickly these changes increase, and become apparent to everyone, is not clear. But one thing is clear - as audience preferences and attention shifts, the money will follow.  And that won't be good for traditional TV (or cable).

Sources  -  For Whom The Bell Tolls? It Tolls for TV...,  Business Insider
Don't Mean To Be Alarmist, But The TV Business May Be Starting To Collapse, Business Insider

2012's Top Wireless Nightmares

In honor of Halloween, the folks at FierceMobileContent asked top wireless industry executives what nightmare scenarios might happen next year.  Here's some highlights -

• iPad mini cuts into iPad sales
• Google and Android get into a patent spat like the one between Samsung and Apple
• RIM's new OS (Blackberry 10) is supplanted by Windows Phone 8, then abandoned
• FCC and DOJ object to T-Mobile/MetroPCS deal (like they did with last year's AT&T/T-Mobile deal)
• FCC imposes caps that limit spectrum acquisition in support of new high-bandwidth mobile broadband services
• Nobody wants Leap Wireless (provider of Cricket wireless service)
• Mobile handset makers fail to support global TD-LTE standard

Source - 2012 Wireless industry nightmares,  FierceWireless

Clark Kent (Superman) to quit Daily Planet

Concern over the current state of journalism and traditional news organizations has hit the comic books.

  The latest issue of Superman 13 (from DC Comics) has mild-mannered reporter Clark Kent (a.k.a. Superman) getting into a heated argument with his editor, Perry White, and Lois Lane, who's now a TV news producer, over the lack of serious news.

Kent is summoned to the office of Perry White, the Planet's publisher, and given a dressing down for his lack of stories.

When Kent complains that it has been a "slow news week" he is told, by Lois Lane, now a television producer, that it is a poor excuse, prompting him to begin a rant about the state of modern journalism which ends with him quitting the paper.

"Why am I the one sounding like a grizzled ink-stained wretch who believes news should be about – I don't know – news?" he asks.

His question prompts White to respond with a devastating critique of newspaper journalism: "Times are changing and print is a dying medium.

"I don't like it but the only hope we have of delivering any news at all is to give the people what they want to read and God help me if a front-page story about some reality star gets them to pick up a paper and maybe stumble on some real news " the publisher continues.

After a second heated discussion with Morgan Edge, the paper's owner, Kent quits.

The current writer says Kent's more likely to start a blog than look for a job at another of Metropolis's media outlets.

A spokesman for DC comics confirmed the departure: "This is not the first time in DC Comics history that Clark Kent has left the Planet, and this time the resignation reflects present-day issues – the balance of journalism vs. entertainment, the role of new media, the rise of the citizen journalist, etc."

Source -  Superman quits the Daily Planet - over the state of journalism,  the Telegraph

Media CEOs embrace digital future

A new report suggests media CEOs are optimistic about the digital future, and think that digital provides them an opportunity to significantly grow revenues and profits in the near term.  The Ernst & Young study is based on interview with 34 CEOs from a range of global media and entertainment companies.  The companies span many geographic areas and media and entertainment product markets, with combined revenues above $300 billion.

  Half of the CEOs they talked to predicted that digital would drive up revenue growth and profit margins by double digits within the next three years.  But what's more interesting is which digital technologies and services they felt would drive that growth. 
  When asked what would be the biggest driver in terms of increasing content consumption over the near term, the CEOs unanimously named mobile devices.  In contrast, 53% cited improved broadband and mobile infrastructure, 41% cited social media and other emerging networks, and 24% indicated that increases in online content availability would be a primary factor increasing online content consumption.  Looking a bit deeper, the CEOs talked about mobile as creating expansive new markets and demand.

“The integration of media content, devices and networks creates self-sustaining digital ecosystems. The more users interact with content, the easier it is to learn about their habits and for content, advertising, and services within these ecosystems to evolve and grow,” said Howard Bass, Senior Partner, Global Media & Entertainment Advisory Services, Ernst & Young LLP.

  Mobile also led the list of digital technologies that would have the biggest overall impact on the Media & Entertainment industry - 79% of the CEOs said tablets would have a significant impact, and 62% thought smartphones would.  Cloud technology was cited by 59%, Apps (as means of providing content and services) was identified by 56%, and 53% thought mobile broadband would have a big impact.  Interesting, social media was the least mentioned of the technologies included in the survey, with 44% of the CEOs thinking that social media would have a big impact on the media and entertainment industry.
  It wasn't that the CEOs didn't see the value of social media to the industry - it was more how they thought social media would be useful and potentially having an impact.  The CEOs saw social media having an important role in terms of audience relations - 84% said social media's value and importance came with it's ability to connect with customers; 69% saw value in building audiences; and 63% thought social media would be helpful in building brands.  Only half thought that social media might become an important distribution channel or revenue source.
  It's important to note that the CEO's also recognized the challenges of the digital future for their firms.  As might be expected, uncertainty about the future was at the core of many of their concerns - global economic uncertainty was the top concern given.  In addition, CEOs felt that concerns about capturing the fair value of digital content was a critical concern.  Some also identified structural and regulatory uncertainty, uncertainty about how marketing budgets would be allocated across media and platforms, and the viability of disintermediation efforts (i.e., could they eliminate the middleman and link content producers and consumers directly).
  Most of the CEOs (56%) planned to focus short term efforts on pushing and expanding digital and online distribution efforts - putting themselves in a position to be able to take advantage of whatever specific opportunities emerge from the fog of digital market evolution.  Another strategy might be to become more involved with social media and interactive media - 59% of the CEOs thought that companies in those areas were the best position to thrive in the future.  I'm a little surprised that only 44% of the CEOs said that creatively differentiating content would be a priority.  Repurposing existing content can create added value, and is a cheaper way to enter new markets than creating all-new content.
But I guess CEOs aren't omniscient.

Source - CEOs See Digital As The Driver,  Research Brief blog
News release on the study (full reports can be requested)

Future Search

Roger Barnette has taken an interesting look at the future of search engines in a recent post on the Search Insider blog.  The post looks at a number of recent events that could foreshadow dramatic changes in the online search environment.
   First, recent reports from big online metrics firms ComScore and Hitwise showed small declines over the last year in use of traditional search engines.  There's always been some volatility in the use of specific search engines, as new entrants come into the field, existing search sites expand coverage and work on improving their search and selection engines.  In particular, the traditional big search sites have taken hits recently by the rise of non-English language search sites and the growing globalization of the Internet and the rise of niche search alternatives.
  One of those new entrants in the search market is likely to be Facebook, which has the corporate size to challenge the big search sites and has the niche potential of integrating Facebook likes and friends' preferences into its recommendation engine.  Another possible big entrant is Apple.  While Apple hasn't publicly announced its intent to enter search, it has made two big moves lately to internalize standard app features that had relied on external services.  With Apple's release of iOS6, it has dropped YouTube and GoogleMaps as standard included apps in favor of its own mobile apps.  When those moves were announced, many felt it was just a matter of time before Apple internalized search as well.  (However, Apple has since formally apologized to users for its troubled and buggy Maps app - which may have Apple reconsidering entry into mainstream search, or at least delaying announcement and implementation until they've developed a fully competitive option).
  Another major shift impacting search is the rapid growth in mobile, which has helped expand interest in, and use of, location-based and context-based searches.  Not only are mobile searches expanding the ability to search, studies are indicating that people use mobile search differently - much more of an emphasis on location-based searches, comparison-focused searches, and situational searches.  These can pose a challenge to legacy search engines to develop mobile-optimized applications, lest they lose market share to alternatives.
   Speaking of alternatives, niche search alternatives have also been on the rise.  There are, for now, two basic types of niche alternatives - one is the rise of content-specific search sites, the other are sites that aren't primarily designed for search, but incorporate search and recommendation engines. 
  The best examples of the latter are Amazon, and to some extent Netflix.  Both excel in terms of recommendations (tailoring search results to user preferences), and are comprehensive enough in their coverage to satisfy most search activity. As Barnette states, "When people skip over a search engine and go straight to Amazon for product search, it’s clear that either Amazon is doing something very right, or search engines need to improve their results."
   There seem to be two predominant types of niche search engines - language-based and content-hosting based.  Historically, Internet use and content has predominantly been English language based.  More recently, however, the proportion of English-language content has declined as Internet use has expanded globally.  While many of the large search sites developed sites and search engines in other languages, they've been challenged by native language search engines in many cases.  Native language search sites may be better equipped to capture nuances and differential preferences of local users/  In addition, users may feel more comfortable using native-language focused sites, or think that it would provide better results.  Recent years have also seen a rapid rise in focused content archives or hosting sites.   YouTube is the classic example - with its focus on videos and offer of free hosting, it's become the place to go for many users looking for video content.  But similar archives/hosting services exist for many fields of academic research, photographs, fan fiction, movie information and credits, and myriad other topics.  Users looking to search within those topics often will go to these niche search sites first - so they don't have to sort through the extraneous results a more general search engine would provide.

  Barnette suggests that all these factors suggest that the big general search sites will continue to experience erosion in their use - although that could be ameliorated somewhat by acquisition (such as Google's purchase of YouTube), developing their own niche search products, or optimizing applications for emerging search types (such as Bing's new search app optimized for mobile use).  As for "search marketers," volatility in the general search market is likely to keep the value of search sites for search marketers somewhat uncertain.  On the other hand, most search marketers are interested in reaching targeted users - and the fragmentation of search by niches, and the additional targeting opportunities offered by mobile, can be quite valuable in some cases.

  Search sites are starting to experience the evolution in audiences and market that all general-interest media are facing - where an increasing number of competitors start nibbling at the niches, and changing user interests and preferences will begin taking users to alternatives that better match their interests (if the dominant sites aren't nimble enough to provide their own alternatives and niches).  Internet sites and services aren't exempt from the general trend effects of the digital/telecom revolution.

Source -  The Future of Search,  SearchInsider

TV, Media Execs Embrace Multi-Platform Distribution

A recent survey of broadcasters and media executives found that three out of four believe that online, social, and mobile platforms are driving audiences to watch more television content.
  The Avid broadcast survey interviewed more than 200 "executives and decision-makers from leading broadcast and post and professional organizations in Europe and North America," who were asked questions about where they thought their businesses were headed, and the role and impact of a variety of digital delivery platforms.
   Two thirds of the media organizations indicated that they were optimistic about their future, despite declining audiences and revenues in many traditional media operations.  The optimism was more than wishful thinking - it was linked to the belief that new digital distribution platforms would offer "unprecedented" opportunity for business growth. The researchers identified three drivers for continued growth - increased audiences, multiplatform distribution (MPD), and revenues growth potential from both advertising and audience payments.
  As noted above, 74% of respondents agreed with the statement that the Internet (digital video delivery) will also drive viewers to more traditional linear media (Broadcast, Cable, Satellite).  As for fears of digital options further fragmenting their markets, more than half (55%) of the executives felt that current economic uncertainty was a bigger threat.  They also felt that current and emerging digital video delivery options gave them entry into new and expanded markets - an entry that could be exploited in a variety of ways.  85% of respondents said that multiplatform distribution was critical to capturing new markets and their growth potential.
  One largely undeveloped opportunity is the ability to access and exploit existing content archives.  Respondents felt that, on average, 40% of existing archives could be monetized (potentially profitable) - but at this point they felt that only a fourth of their archives were accessible.  Expanding access could make more valuable content readily available.  The survey found that 83% of respondents felt that all premium video services would be available online, as a means of increasing accessibility and market size. Almost tw0-thirds (63%) also felt that MPD opened a new market for professional content. But most critically, the media executives seemed to be recognizing the full range of opportunities that multiple digital platforms offer - not only access new and expanded markets, but potential to add value to their content streams by customizing them to specific platforms and individual customers.  Adding value increases demand generally, and if high enough, it can justify direct payments from consumers.

Gary Greenfield, CEO and chairman of Avid, says "... media organizations worldwide are moving from addressing homogenous audiences to delivering personalized experiences... this change in the relationship between broadcasters and their audiences... forces a change in business models... “

More than three-quarters of those surveyed (78%) thought that within the next ten years, most of the content delivered would be customized for individual viewer preferences.  70% felt that most content would also be optimized for the particular device viewers are watching the content on.
  Survey participants also thought that moving towards an emphasis on exploiting content assets, by expanding accessibility or adding value through customization, could also be beneficial on the operations/cost side.  When asked about the potential effects of an increased emphasis on asset-based workflows, 75% felt it would increase business efficiency and the bottom line, and two-thirds (67%) felt it would enable new business models.  More specifically, 79% felt that implementing asset-based workflows would enhance operational agility, 69% indicated it would enable better automation, and 62% thought it would largely solve the problem of increasing content volume.
  Exploring new business models and markets opens the way for new growth opportunities at a time when the traditional broadcast model appears static or in decline.  The media executives recognize this, and are looking for their future growth to occur in other areas: 85% see growth potential in multi-platform services; 78% look to new markets and increased audiences for growth; 71% feel those increased channels and audiences will lead to increased advertising revenues; and 70% see growth from audience direct revenues (fees/sales).  There's also a general recognition of the potential of the Cloud; almost all respondents indicated they were already using the Cloud (24%) or exploring how to use the Cloud in their future operations (75%)

  For me, the survey results confirm that today's broadcasting and media executives now recognize the fundamental market transformation that digital has brought - they no longer see themselves as monolithic "broadcasters" relying on long-established revenue streams.  They have recognized that they're primarily purveyors of content in an increasingly competitive market; that the source of their value is content and not merely a signal; and they should seek and embrace multiple mechanisms for exploiting their content and the multiple revenue streams available.  While the various MPD options have yet to show they can fully replace losses in traditional revenue streams, early efforts suggest that when fully developed, the added revenues from multiple streams and operational savings could provide the basis for broadcaster survival into the future. 

Sources -  Multiple Digital Platforms Boost TV Viewing,  Research Brief blog
To request research results, go to Avid/Ovum The Future of Digital Media Survey

The Future of TV - 10 Things to Know

KIT Digital recently provided some thoughts on the future of TV, and some of the more immediate questions, from its Global Lead Analyst, Alan Wolk - in the form of a slideshow.  The slides are available here if you want a copy, and I'll see if I can get an embed to work.

10 Things You Need To Know About The Future of Television from Alan Wolk

Among some of the key points -

• Transition to TV Everywhere is being slowed by "Lawyers" (really about interpreting intellectual property rights in that new context)
• Bandwidth caps by broadband providers (setting a limit on data transfers) is slowing diffusion of TV Everywhere and "cord-cutting" (people leaving MVPD for access to TV content via the Internet)
• Rise of Smart TV currently slowed by lack of single standard, and difficulty in upgrading programming in TVs - suggests that small set-top boxes like AppleTV and Roku may be the future, as they are easily upgradable.
• Content producers (esp. movies) most worried about drop in DVD sales (why buy when you can get most through Netflix and its kin), and the shrinking window between primary theatrical release and availability through pay VOD.
• There's potentially big value in second screen apps - as a way to implement "click-to-buy" online purchases for goods shown in ads or within program content; and as a source of consumer data on viewing and impacts.
• Who has the best user interface (combining simplicity with value) goes a long way in determining winners and losers.

Source -  10 things you need to know about the future of TV,  LostRemote

TV viewing al "Fresco" (future displays)

At recent TV technology meetings in Washington, DC, NDS presented a demonstration of a new way of watching TV - its "Fresco" project.

(C)onsumers of tomorrow may have expansive video screens available, perhaps covering entire walls of their homes or workplaces. NDS and others feel that this future is not far away, given the progress in OLED development that could soon lead to large display arrays assembled from smaller elements. The OLED panels could be super-thin, frameless, and either transparent when off, or coupled with electrophoretic ink (“E-Ink”) panels – as used today in many e-book readers – to provide a static background pattern. “It could be like tiling your bathroom,” as NDS’s Simon Parnall described.

 The "Fresco" project envisions future displays as unobtrusive, ultra-High Definition (at least 4K), immersive, and ambient.

Parnall explained that such a display would “live with the viewer or family in the home,” displaying items that might today be presented by physical pictures on the wall, calendars, clocks, magnetic notes posted on the fridge, and the like. The display could also be used to present multiple simultaneous content elements (from broadcast, broadband or in-home sources), sized and arranged or the screen appropriately, or a single content element at a large size – so called “full immersion.”

 Parnall stressed the importance of including and utilizing metadata within video and data feeds, particularly in broadcast feeds.  The metadata (information about the content/app) could adjust display parameters automatically, and assist users' devices to make better choices on available viewing (or storage) options.  He also mentioned the opportunity for revenue generation from having such a large display canvas (putting ads, links, apps, etc. beside the primary broadcast feed, instead of overlaying them on top of the broadcast picture.
  What's slowing implementation is that direct-view screen sizes are nearing screen sizes that aren't viable in most consumer viewing contexts (too big for available wall space, too large to get through doors or around corners in stairs or hallways, and too heavy.  Today's largest plasma and LCD displays (and the demo in this case) use multiple smaller displays assembled together and linked to an external video driver that splits the video feeds among the component displays.  OLED technology offers the potential of thin and flexible screens that will eventually be ramped up to the kind of sizes and area coverage that "Fresco" envisions - but for now quality and manufacturing concerns have left large-screen OLEDs too expensive for general consumer use.
  Still, those attending the demo found it useful in terms of providing an idea about possible future viewing options, and the various opportunities for combining video and data in new, potentially profitable ways.

Source - NDS "Fresco" Demonstration Envisions a Bold Future of Television,  TV TechCheck

For somewhat similar visions of the future of displays, check GE's A Day Made of Glass, A Day Made of Glass 2, and Day 2 - Unpacked (discusses specifics of technology and current viability) videos.

Future of mobile - Nokia Human Form

There's a lot of people envisioning what the future holds for mobile technology and mobile devices.  Here's a report on Nokia's vision, contributed by David Comm -


Recently the engineers at Nokia have been working on a concept of a phone that could revolutionize the world of mobile phones…it’s called the Nokia Human Form. Of course, this is still just a concept…not yet a phone. However, it is based off of the Nokia Kinetic Device which IS real, so the Human Form is not complete fiction.
  The Kinetic Device is a concept phone that Nokia developed that is flexible…yes, flexible. Instead of buttons, the Kinetic Device is controlled by bending, twisting, and squeezing. It was unveiled at Nokia World 2011 at London’s Excel Centre. The phone was unveiled by Tapani Jokinen, Nokia’s Head of Design, Technology Insights. Tapani said that while there is a touch screen on the phone it goes “beyond it.”

  This is the technology that will be used in the Human Form, plus a little. The Human Form will look like no other phone…it looks like a min surfboard, it is thin, transparent, and flexible. Not only that but it can mold to your ear when you talk and can mold to you leg while in your pocket. If that wasn’t enough, a particularly cool feature is the tactile sensory touch that accompanies a photograph, so when you look at a picture, your skin can interpret the surface of that particular object by simply touching it, as if they were virtually right there in front of you.
  Again, this is still just a concept, so it will be years before this could even be possible, but you can still see a really cool video of Nokia’s vision of the Human Form here. From Nokia PR comes this description:

“Human Form…a visionary solution beyond touch screen and voice communication where technology becomes invisible and intuition takes over. The solution is a redefined phone where interactions become natural and convey human emotions.”

Sources – Nokia Research Center and Nokia Connects

Living Room Tech

Post contributed by Margo Lipscomb -

Having a TV dinner may never be the same again. Now, with your Microsoft Kinect for your Xbox, your living room will now be able to open up a whole new realm of entertainment.
   Now, in addition to your Netflix subscription, you will be able to access such programs like Microsoft, Sony and Apple all from your own television. Apple has recently emerged with new technology allowing you to stream content from your MAC to your television with an “Apple TV.”
   This being said, there is speculation about Apple actually launching a complete television set itself. In Steve Jobs’ biography it is mentioned that he “finally cracked” the challenge of building an integrated television experience that’s easy to use for consumers. Whether or not consumers will actually be interested in such a product is a question that can only be answered by the future.

Sources -  The Next Big Thing(s) in Tech, PC World
Will the next Apple TV be launched with Dish or DirecTV?  GigaOm

Contemplating the Future Through "Design Fiction"

Futurists like Bruce Sterling are talking about the importance of "design fiction" as a way of thinking about the future and the possible impacts of emerging technologies and ideas.  So what is design fiction?

  The term basically refers to the idea of using storytelling to speculate about new ideas, and then apply those insights into the design of prototypes and applications of  new ideas and technologies.  The underlying idea of design fiction has been an integral part of science fiction for decades - in books like John Brunner's Shockwave Rider (1975), which looked at a world where some had wider access to information than others, and computer worms and viruses were significant plot devices, Neal Stephenson's The Diamond Age (1995), in which a personalized interactive data device becomes a tutor and mentor to a young girl, William Gibson's Neuromancer (1984), where much of the action takes place within a globalized virtual world, Isaac Asimov's Robot novels (particularly The Naked Sun (1957)), which often explored societies where technology replaced human interactions, and Bruce Sterling's Islands in the Net (1988), which explored the implications of a global information system much like today's Internet amidst growing efforts by states to control the system.
  In a recent interview for Slate, Bruce Sterling said he felt that the most effective design fictions to date have been videos imagining how technologies that are becoming feasible today could be used.  In some cases it's peripheral to the main story, such as the tablet used in the 1969 film 2001: A Space Odyssey that audiences today would recognize as an iPad.  In others, like Corning's A Day Made of Glass, it might be a vignette exploring what a w world of ubiquitous computers and screens (using Corning glass products) might look like.  It might even be more illustrative than speculatve, like Timo's Robot Readable World, which shows what "robot" eyes (really, any computer analysis of video input) can look at, and how it can analyze actions from video feeds.  In that case, it's the viewer who creates the fiction as they watch, thinking about how such systems might be used.
  Design fiction is increasingly useful, Sterling concludes, because

It’s really a new set of tools that, I think they’re giving futurism a second wind in some ways. Instead of talking about grand, overarching things like futurism in the 1960s—we need a new consciousness—it suits the tenor of our own period. What kind of business model would that work in? That’s the question people of our time can engage in. I’m not saying design fiction’s going to resolve our economic problems. On the other hand, if you’re an unemployed designer, it’s one of the coolest things you can do now.

  I'll add that I also think that it can be important because it can get us to actually think about how technologies and services might be used, and what might be the implications and ramifications of such use.  To often, today, we don't think about the later consequences of actions and choices.

Source -  Sci-Fi Writer Bruce Sterling Explains the Intriguing New Concept of Design Fiction,  Slate Future Tense blog

Top Tech Predictions: A View from Broadcasting/Gaming

Matt Ployhar's posted his list of Top Technology Predictions for 2012 on the Broadcast Newsroom blog.

1. Voice and Artificial Intelligence - from cars to smartphones to games to TVs - look for voice-controlled systems to move to more and more digital systems.
2. Cloud Services - look for more and more content to be stored in, and delivered through, Clouds.
3. Tablet Mania Wears Off - here I disagree - Ployhar doesn't see tablets as replacements for PC, and thus diffusion will slow.  I agree that they aren't a full PC/laptop replacement, but a supplement - but that's why I see tablet adoption to continue to boom, as a basic tool for surfing, media consumption, and gaming.
4. Smarter TVs - Ployhar hopes for an integrated TV/PC/Gaming platform with input devices built-in.  I see smarter, in terms of integrating WiFi and Internet connectivity, but Ployhar's forgetting that all-in-one systems lock you into the system, and limit piecemeal replacement as technology advances.  (Also, what about all that legacy hardware/software, and who gets to win the gaming platform battle?)
5. China lifts it's ban on gaming consoles - who wouldn't want access to the world's largest market?
6. E3 News - isn't it time for a new generation of consoles and gaming platforms?
7. Google goes Big in 2012 - look for continued integration of Google's various platforms and services.
8. Time for that Big Deal in Gaming - Will 2012 see one leader buying out another?
9. The World's Still Flat - Globalization & Economic Climate remain mostly stable

Looking it over, this list is about half wish (at least in terms of will something seen as mostly inevitable happen in 2012 or after), and half seeing where trends are likely to go.  And a couple that I don't think are realistic from an economic/market perspective, but interesting nonetheless.

Source -  Top Technology Predictions for 2012,  BroadcastNewsroom.com

Getting People Jobs

Susannah Breslin  is a young journalist who writes for the Forbes Blog, mostly on job-hunting for journalists.  I highly recommend her "Pink Slipped" blog - not just for the tips and advice, but for the quality of her writing.
  Yesterday, she resummarized what she learned from being downsized a year ago; the day before she wrote about what she's learned in that year, and in doing her column, about helping others find jobs.  And since she's a  better writer than I am for that kind of stuff, I'll encourage you to follow the links and read her, rather than me trying to summarize.

Source -  Susannah Breslin's Pink Slipped column on Forbes.com